A candidata a Presidência da República do Brasil, Marina Silva, está conseguindo passar um recado importante para os demais políticos do Brasil: lutar por ideias e não focar no surrado blá-blá-blá de campanhas parece ser o melhor caminho.

Claro, há algo especial na Marina que é a capacidade de conquistar dizendo coisas extremamente turvas. Ela, por exemplo, divaga sobre questões do Estado, “resolve” pontos que nem Aristoteles, Rousseau, Hobbes, Weber e teóricos modernos conseguiram. De toda forma, é certo que o cenário histórico favorece muito a Marina, mas ela tem a vantagem de saber aproveitar isto.

A Marina Silva vive algo similar ao Lula em 2002. Isto é, um momento da história no qual o desejo de mudanças está personificado em nela. Por isso mesmo, é quase exponencial suas chances de vitória.

Entre ter “boas” ideias e ter força para colocá-las em prática são duas realidades completamente diferentes. O próprio Lula viveu isto, mas ele tinha um trunfo que talvez Marina não tenha no nível adequado: saber negociar (isto é tudo em política).

Mais que isso, muita gente que vai votar na Marina pode estar vivendo uma euforia, mas não passa por suas mentes que o papel deles nesse desejo de mudança está além do voto. O eleitor dela terá papel fundamental na possibilidade de sucesso ou fracasso num eventual governo de Marina.

Vejamos, será que o eleitor da Marina está pensando em garantir a ela condições de governo? Será que ele sabe como fazer isso? Deve votar estrategicamente, isto é, escolher governadores, deputados e senadores que sejam do mesmo espectro. Não adianta votar nela para presidente e encher o Congresso de opositores (É óbvio que a oposição é fundamental para a Democracia, mas deve ser feita por quem realmente discorda de um ou outro modelo de governo). Entretanto, se é sempre muito difícil governar com os próprios aliados, imagina uma oposição majoritária.

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É lógico que uma profunda análise política nunca mobilizou voto no Brasil nem em lugar algum. O povo, no geral, não tem esse tipo de interesse, ou sofisticação.

De toda forma, o momento aponta para um novo retrato sendo pendurado às paredes dos órgãos federais em primeiro de janeiro: o de Marina Silva. Não vou votar nela, mas acredito que o segundo turno (se houver) como está desenhado acaba sendo bom. Olha que sou evangélico (o público que está dando esta vantagem à Marina). Não vejo em Marina muitas diferenças ideológicas – pragmáticas – em relação ao modelo de gestão atual. E, para mim, isto não é ruim.

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Há o discurso dela, toda essa coisa de “nova política”, mas isto é apenas o lado mais utópico, o do apelo emocional, que por sinal – está dando certo. Todos que conhecem política fora do senso comum sabem muito bem que na hora do “pega pra capar”, não adianta palavrinhas de efeito, só boa vontade.

No Brasil, o presidente só tem que negociar com 513 deputados, 81 senadores, 27 governadores, quase 6 mil prefeitos e com “zilhões” de interesses particulares. Agora, resta saber quais serão os argumentos de convencimento. Se a Marina conseguir lidar com isto, fazer reformas tributária, política e administrativa, repactuar a federação, etc. – espero que consiga, caso seja eleita, será a melhor presidente da história do Brasil, sem dúvida.

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